Forex Investment and Currency Trading

The Chinese yuan (CNY) has been on an appreciating path since its de-pegging and revaluation on 21 July 2005. The pace of this appreciation appeared to pick up sharply in Q4-07, in line with the public change in official rhetoric to “tight” rather “prudent” economic policy. Since then, a shift by the Chinese authorities has been noticed in [...]

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USD/CNY
Current Spot Rate - 6.85

3Q2008 - 6.70
4Q2008- 6.45
1Q2009 - 6.27
2Q2009 - 6.14
3Q2009 - 6.05
4Q2009 - 6.00

Macroeconomic Trends and Prospects
China economy is expected to slow down moderately in 2Q 2008 (market consensus 10.4% yoy vs. 10.6% in 1Q 2008) “in an expected direction of macroeconomic control” (Premier Wen). The authorities have shifted rhetoric from preventing overheating [...]

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Emerging financial markets frequently track swings in advanced economy stocks. However, the close relationship between Emerging Market (EM) currencies and the S&P 500 broke in October 2007 with virtually no sign of repair since.
In 2H 2008, emerging market currency strategies will likely benefit from adhering to two main tenets
1) pursuit of relative value and 2) [...]

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