Forex Investment and Currency Trading

The Chinese yuan (CNY) has been on an appreciating path since its de-pegging and revaluation on 21 July 2005. The pace of this appreciation appeared to pick up sharply in Q4-07, in line with the public change in official rhetoric to “tight” rather “prudent” economic policy. Since then, a shift by the Chinese authorities has been noticed in [...]

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USD/CNY
Current Spot Rate - 6.85

3Q2008 - 6.70
4Q2008- 6.45
1Q2009 - 6.27
2Q2009 - 6.14
3Q2009 - 6.05
4Q2009 - 6.00

Macroeconomic Trends and Prospects
China economy is expected to slow down moderately in 2Q 2008 (market consensus 10.4% yoy vs. 10.6% in 1Q 2008) “in an expected direction of macroeconomic control” (Premier Wen). The authorities have shifted rhetoric from preventing overheating [...]

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1 – 3 Month Outlook – CNY
China’s FX reserves soared by a massive $128.4bn in the first four months of the year as the authorities sought temporarily to stabilise the USD/CNY rate. Latterly, however, the Chinese currency has begun to appreciate once again, breaking below the 6.9 level. This positive trend is expected to [...]

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